To understand the Ukrainian invasion of Russia, we must understand the differences between Russia and Ukraine. First, Russia is huge compared to Ukraine, 28.5 times larger, and has the largest land area of any country in the world. The Russians can afford to have the Ukrainians conquer a lot of Russian territory, while evacuating its civilians and pretending to fight. The Ukrainians will be stretched too thin after a while and their supply lines will be too long. It won't affect what is happening on the battlefield within Ukraine.

Second, Russia has a unique military history. They are experienced in giving up ground to buy time until fall and winter weather, with its rain, cold, snow, and ice making roads impassible and invading armies ineffective. That is how Napoleon's army was defeated when it invaded Russia, and also what helped defeat Nazi Germany, aside from Hitler's insistence on overruling his generals.

Third, the Russian population is 3.5 times larger than Ukraine's population. Ukraine is running out of soldiers. The Russians can keep on throwing troops at Ukrainian soldiers to wear them out, and sustain high losses while doing so.

Ukraine's seizure of territory embarrassed Putin to the extent that he pulled some troops from Ukraine to fight the invasion and quell public unease, which was the Ukrainian objective. He obtained 10,000 troops from North Korea and recruited naive foreigners to help fight the war with Ukraine because the numbers of Russian troops are limited. He only recently called up a full scale conscription within Russia. Being conscripted to fight is never popular.

Russia has pushed Ukrainian troops out of its territory, with Ukraine last holding about three square miles of Russia as of September 2025. So the invasion of a large country, while bold, was ultimately doomed to fail. Putin does not like to lose, or give up on any prominent position he has taken, regardless of the cost to his nation.

We do know that the Russian banking sector raised interest rates to 21% near the end of October, 2024, and inflation was projected to average 8.8% for the year. And there have been reports that the Russian railway system is near breakdown because of a lack of ball bearings embargoed by the West, which will eventually be supplied by China.

Both the stress on Russia's economy and Ukraine's drone attacks on Russian oil facilities are putting pressure on Putin. However, unless the invasion causes so much additional disruption that his generals seriously question the war, he may be able to keep pecking away at Ukraine for a long time.

Ukraine, meanwhile is suffering greatly from the war. Russia has gradually learned from its mistakes on the battlefield and is getting better at using drones to kill Ukrainian troops and civilians. The war has degenerated into the use of missiles, drones, and artillery, with Russia destroying Ukrainian infrastructure, including its energy grid, and terrorizing civilians.

Ukraine's economic and manpower means are limited. The European Union, shamefully, is still too weak militarily and politically to provide sufficient weapons, ammunition, and funding to Ukraine. It still buys more in fuel, natural gas, and coal from Russia than it supplies to Ukraine in military and civilian aid. They know they need to turn that around, possibly using new nuclear plant designs for energy, and that will take many years.